newstodate.aero

Oct 19, 2023 (newstodate): With Russian and Belarus airspace closed to western and many other airlines, the situation is already posing a serious challenge to the aviation and air cargo industries.
   But it might become even worse, says the former editor of Reuters Air Cargo Service, Humphrey Hudson, in a mail correspondence with newstodate.
   -If for some reason Iranian allies, or Iran itself, attack Israel and the latter strikes back, that's more than likely to seriously affect air traffic, not just to the region but also those flights that overfly the region. And especially all the flights to and from all of Asia via the Gulf.
   -If that's the case, and with traffic over Russia also banned, the impact on pax traffic but very much so on air cargo is going to be disastrous.  
   -I haven't seen much reference to the likely damage to an already weak world economy, but one certainly hopes airlines have backup plans in place.
   -If airlines can't overfly the Middle East/Gulf or Russia, what will they do? Going south via Africa would seem to be complicated and costly, as jet fuel prices are rising.  
   -I'm certainly not trying to ignore the ghastly consequences of what is happening in Israel and Gaza - just trying to think through what would be some of the fallout if things worsen, writes Mr Hudson.